ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 19th February
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, February 19. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better (https://surveys.hotjar.com/58578fe2-a49e-4faf-9594-3a926a54cd03).
New updates
Aspen FY26 guidance upgrade
[10:20 am] Aspen’s first half operating earnings rose 33% as net rental income and realised development profits accelerated. Management lifted FY26 earnings guidance while keeping the full-year distribution outlook unchanged.
Key Numbers:
- Net rental income up to $20.9m vs $17.1m pcp (up 22%)
- Realised development profit up to $10.2m vs $5.5m pcp (up 87%)
- Underlying operating EBITDA up to $26.3m vs $20.4m pcp (up 29%)
- Underlying operating earnings per security up to 10.7c vs 8.0c pcp (up 33%)
- Interim distribution up to 5.5c per security vs 5.0c pcp (up 10%) Outlook:
- FY26 underlying pre-tax EPS guidance raised to 21.5c vs 20.0c ests (8% beat)
- FY26 underlying operating EBITDA guidance raised to $53.3m vs $51.0m ests (5% beat)
- FY26 DPS reaffirmed at 11.0c APZ is up 1.1% at $5.40 in morning trade.
By Warren Masilamony | Company page: Zip Co (APZ (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/apz?src=search-all))
Zip smashed on earnings miss and mixed guidance
[10:10 am] Zip is down 29% in early trade as revenue and cash EBTDA came in light against expectations as the US business continues to dominate the mix.
* TTV up 34.1% to $8.38bn vs. $8.43bn ests (1% miss)
* Revenue up 29.2% to $658.1m vs. $667.2m ests (1% miss)
* Cash EBTDA up 85.6% to $124.3m vs. $130.3m ests (5% miss),
* Underlying NPAT of $52.4m vs. loss of $1.6m pcp
* Active customers up 4.1% to 6.6m, with transactions up 20.2% to 54.9m and merchants up 10.5% to 90.6k
* Net bad debts of 1.7% of TTV, broadly in line with pcp and within management targets
* FY26 operating margin guidance upgraded to greater than 18.0% from 16.0-19.0% prior, and group cash EBTDA as a % of TTV lifted to greater than 1.4% from greater than 1.3%
* US TTV growth of greater than 40% reaffirmed, with January tracking above that threshold
Company page: Zip Co (ZIP (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/zip))
Results all look good?
[9:53 am] Pretty much all the stocks we've covered so far have reported in-line or better-than-expected, with most names trading higher pre-market (Hub24 up 12%, Telsta up 1.8%, Ventia up 6.1%, Codan up 4.9% and more. These are indicative premarket prices, so highly volatile and have likely already changed at the time of posting).
Codan fires on all cylinders
[9:49 am] Most metric tracking in-line or slightly ahead of expectations, driven by gold detector demand in Africa and continued communications momentum.
* Revenue up 29% to $393.5m vs. $393.1m ests (in line)
* EBITDA of $120.5m vs. $118.2m ests (2% beat)
* NPAT up 55% to $71.2m vs. $70.3m ests (1% beat)
* Interim dividend up 56% to 19.5cps vs. 18.0cps ests (8% beat)
* Metal Detection was the standout, with revenue up 46% to $168.0m and segment profit up 86% to $76.2m, driven by strong gold detector demand in Africa
* Communications delivered revenue up 19% to $221.8m with segment profit up 17% to $58.3m, and an orderbook up 19% to $294m
* FY26 communications revenue growth guidance of 15-20% maintained, with Minelab H2 performance expected to be at least in line with H1
Codan recently upgraded its 1H26 guidance (9-Jan), outlining expectations of 1H26 revenue of $394 million and underlying NPAT no less than $70 million, So today's numbers are all in-line with company guidance. Codan rallied 16.8% on the day of this update to $36.89, though the stock has eased to $34.64 due to recent tech/growth/AI fears.
Company page: Codan (CDA (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/cda))
Ventia 2025 result: Record work in hand and buyback extended
[9:42 am] A clean result across all key metrics with margin expansion, strong cash conversion and a record pipeline providing good visibility into FY26.
* Revenue up 0.6% to $6.14bn vs. $6.26bn ests (2% miss)
* EBITDA up 6.6% to $532.1m vs. $529.3m ests (in line)
* NPATA up 13.0% to $257.6m vs. $254.4m ests (1% beat)
* Final dividend of 12.54 cps
* Work in Hand reached a record $22.1bn, up 14.4%, underpinned by strong contract renewals and new wins across Defence, Digital Infrastructure, Energy Transition and Water
* On-market buyback extended by an additional $100m, bringing the total program to $250m, with $137.6m returned in FY25
* FY26 NPATA guidance of 7-10% growth on FY25 (implying ~$276-283m vs. $269.7m ests)
Overall, a very solid result and FY26 guidance is tracking ahead of consensus. Ventia has rallied 37% in the last twelve months, though valuation still sits at a reasonable ~18.6x.
Company page: Ventia Services Group (VNT (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/vnt))
Lovisa shines with strong store rollout and early H2 momentum
[9:37 am] A broad beat across all key metrics with accelerating new store openings and positive comp store sales growth, while early second half trading points to continued momentum.
* Revenue up 23.3% to $498.1m vs. $491.7m ests (1% beat)
* Underlying gross margin up 50 bps to 82.9% vs. Morgan Stanley ests of 81.8% (11 bp beat)
* Underlying EBIT up 20.4% to $109.1m vs. $101.7m ests (7% beat)
* Underlying NPAT up 21.5% to $69.6m vs. $65.6m ests (6% beat)
* Interim dividend of 53cps vs. 52cps ests (2% beat)
* 85 new stores opened in the half, bringing total store count to 1,095
* Operating cash flow up 30.3% to $183.8m, reflecting strong earnings conversion
* First 7 weeks of H2 total sales up 21.5% on pcp, with comparable store sales up 1.6%
Everything reads well until you hit the first 7 weeks update, where comparable sales growth is up just 1.6% ....
Company page: Lovisa Holdings (LOV (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/lov))
Regis earnings soar on surging gold prices
[9:32 am] A clean beat on both EBITDA and net income with a maiden interim dividend declared, as elevated gold prices flow through to margins.
* Gold sales revenue up 40% to $1.08bn
* EBITDA up 73% to $621m vs. $605.6m ests (3% beat)
* Net income up 267% to $323m vs. $319m ests (1% beat)
* Interim dividend of 15.0cps
* FY26 guidance unchanged, with production of 350-380koz, AISC of $2,610-2,990/oz, growth capex of $220-235m and exploration capex of $70-80m
Regis formalised its capital management policy, which includes intentions to pay a fully-franked, semi-annual dividend. The payout ratio is set at 25-50% of the Group cash increase over the preceding half financial year, and may include buybacks.
Company page: Regis Resources (RRL (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/rrl))
APA Group delivers steady first half with growth pipeline upgraded to ~$3bn
[9:28 am] Inflation-linked tariff escalation and cost discipline drove a solid result in line with expectations, with APA flagging it now expects to exceed the midpoint of its full-year EBITDA guidance range.
* Revenue up 2.0% to $1.61bn vs. $1.63bn ests (1% miss)
* Underlying EBITDA up 7.6% to $1.09bn vs. $1.08bn ests (in line)
* EBITDA margins up 280bps to 77.3%
* Statutory NPAT up 179% to $95m, reflecting EBITDA growth and lower net interest expense
* Interim dividend up 1.9% to 27.5 cps (in-line with ests)
Outlook and guidance commentary:
* FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $2.12-2.20bn (vs. $2.16bn ests), with APA now expecting to exceed the midpoint of the range
* FY26 distribution guidance reaffirmed at 58.0cps, representing 1.8% growth on FY25
* Organic growth pipeline for FY26-FY28 increased from $2.1bn to ~$3bn, to be funded from existing balance sheet capacity and the DRP
* S&P threshold modification provides an additional $1bn of funding capacity, with BBB (stable) long-term credit rating confirmed
EBITDA guidance commentary implies a slight beat vs. ests, while growth pipeline and S&P threshold also a positive. APA has been on a tear since its 1H25 result, with the stock up 49% since 21 February 2025.
Company page: APA Group (APA (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/apa))
Brambles delivers margin expansion and a free cash flow upgrade in solid first half
[9:20 am] Strong new business wins and productivity gains drove earnings ahead of expectations, with free cash flow guidance upgraded meaningfully despite a modest revenue range narrowing.
* Revenue up 2% to $3.53bn vs. $3.55bn ests (1% miss), with volume growth from net new business offset by weak like-for-like consumer demand
* EBIT up 7% to $792.0m vs. $769m ests (3% beat), or up 9% excluding ~$15m of one-off restructuring costs, with margin expansion driven by supply chain and overhead productivity improvements
* Underlying NPAT up 11% to $507.4m vs. $485.2m ests (4% beat)
* Interim dividend up 21% to 23.0cps vs. 22.5cps ests (2% beat)
* On-market share buyback of up to $400m on track, with $191m purchased in the half
* FY26 free cash flow guidance upgraded to $950-1,100m from $850-950m prior (vs. $912.9m ests), reflecting higher earnings and lower working capital outflows
* FY26 revenue growth guidance narrowed to 3-4% from 3-5% prior (vs. 6.6% ests), while underlying NPAT growth of 8-11% was reaffirmed
Despite a slight top-line miss and narrower revenue guidance, improved operating leverage and cost discipline is driving resilient bottom-line and cash flow outcomes.
Company page: Brambles (BXB (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/bxb))
Wesfarmers delivers solid first half with Bunnings and Kmart doing the heavy lifting
[9:16 am] A clean beat on earnings with early signs of consumer resilience, though the dividend came in light vs. expectations and Covalent Lithium's ramp-up timeline has been extended.
* Revenue up 3.1% to $24.21bn vs. $24.25bn ests (in line)
* EBIT up 8.4% to $2.49bn vs. $2.41bn ests (3% beat)
* NPAT up 9.3% to $1.60bn vs. $1.54bn ests (4% beat)
* Interim dividend up 7.4% to 102 cps vs. 107 cps ests (5% miss)
* Bunnings and Kmart Group were the key earnings drivers, with both benefiting from everyday low price positioning, productivity initiatives and expanding digital capabilities
* WesCEF benefited from improved lithium pricing later in the half, with the Covalent refinery producing high-quality lithium hydroxide during commissioning, though the ramp-up timeline has been extended to address intermittent issues
* Officeworks earnings were impacted by transformation program costs, while WIS delivered broadly in line with pcp after adjusting for the Coregas sale
* Early H2 trading positive, with Kmart Group sales growth stronger than H1, and Bunnings and Officeworks broadly in line with H1
* A $1.50 per share capital management distribution ($1.7bn total) was paid during the half
Company page: Wesfarmers (WES (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/wes))
Pilbara Minerals swings back to profit as lithium pricing and volumes recover
[9:10 am] A strong turnaround with EBITDA up 241% and margins nearly tripling, though earnings came in marginally below expectations and no interim dividend was declared.
* Revenue up 47% to $624m
* Adjusted EBITDA up 241% to $253m vs. $259.3m ests (2% miss)
* EBITDA margins expanding to 41% from 17%
* NPAT of $33m vs. loss of $69m pcp,
** Though includes $16m of non-cash P-PLS call option write-down and $23m equity-accounted P-PLS losses
* No interim dividend declared, consistent with capital management framework, with the board flagging it will consider a dividend at FY26 full year results subject to sustained lithium pricing
* Production up 6% to 432.8kt, with sales of 446.0kt at an average realised price of US$965/t (CIF China), up 40% vs a year ago
* Unit operating costs down 8% to $563/t, remaining within FY26 guidance of $560-600/t, with a modest increase expected in the second half due to the Ngungaju restart
* Balance sheet remains strong with closing cash of $954m and total liquidity of approximately $1.6bn
PLS also approved the restart of its 200Ktpa Ngungaju plant, with production to resume this July.
Overall, PLS continues to show why its the best in class lithium producer. The result also highlights the leverage that miners have to higher prices (margins more than doubling to 41%. Remember when EBITDA margins were ~80% during 2022-23 peaks?).
Company page
